Defense, bullpen look like strengths; what can the starters and offense provide?

As I type this on Wednesday, the Milwaukee Brewers are an hour away from starting game number five of the 2024 season. At 4-0, they’re one of three undefeated teams remaining in Major League Baseball, joining the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates –– just as everyone would have predicted.

OK, maybe not the Tigers. The defending National League Central Division champions have flown under the local radar since being quickly dismissed from last year’s playoffs by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Packers made a run, March Madness arrived and the Bucks have tried to make fans believe they’re a championship contender, though the visual evidence suggests otherwise.

The Brewers have been nowhere on the national radar too since they lost one allstar starting pitcher to injury and another through the familiar Brewers trade portal –– all-star out, prospects in. Plus, MLB’s highest-paid manager is now down the road 90 miles. Can’t remember his name right now.

Of course four games only represents 2.5% of the MLB season so drawing conclusions can be a useless exercise. But why not try.

Save for players like Christian Yelich, Wade Miley, Gary Sanchez and the Brewers’ marquee acquisition, Rhys Hoskins, you could say Milwaukee is mimicking the 2023 Green Bay Packers. Ready or not, the Brewers are throwing the young kids and their cheap, spare-part veterans into the deep end of the pool and seeing if they sink or swim.

Not that this front-office plan is any surprise. Followers of the Brewers have seen this coming even before the tipping point, the Josh Hader trade of late 2022. The team was busy rebuilding its farm system for a handful of years through the draft and trades after going all-in for the 2018 and 2019 seasons and now has become the time to bring those kids up and see if they can be the foundation for another shot at going all-in when the time is right in a year or two or three.

Now on pace for 162-0, maybe the timeline gets pushed up to this year? Probably not.

All seasons are interesting if you’re a devoted fan and this one will be no different. The 4-0 start gives you hope, but the reality is there are going to peaks and there are going to be valleys the next six months. Keeping the season’s lows short with young stars who may not be used to struggling will be key.

While the national baseball media won’t look much at Milwaukee due to its lack of $300 million names and contracts, there are assets to like on the 2024 roster. The bullpen again appears strong and should get stronger when all-star closer Devin Williams returns from a back stress fracture this summer. William Contreras is trending toward being in the upper echelon of catchers, starting pitcher Freddy Peralta should be reaching his prime and the most noticeable aspect through four games is the team’s potential to be among MLB’s best defensively. Brice Turang is unreal at second base, Willy Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop and the athletes Milwaukee has stacked in the outfield should be able to run down just about any baseball that hangs in the air for any length of time.

The Brewers came up with the term “run prevention” a few years back as a team concept. Four games in, you can see that hasn’t gone away. It’s actually a must because, again it’s only four games in, the offense hasn’t exactly blown the Mets and Twins away. The Brewers have scored enough to win and that’s it.

The concerns that jump out when one looks at the roster are the questionable offense and the lack of starting pitching.

You’d like to think the offense can be better than the last four years. It’s been a struggle for the Brewers to score consistently since 2019. The additions of Hoskins and Sanchez should help. Yelich won’t ever be his 2018-19 self again, but last year and through four games this year, he’s getting closer, which is all he needs to be.

It’s going to be up to Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and, of course, the team’s $80 million rookie Jackson Chourio to give the offense more punch, more diversity. Contreras is already one of the game’s top offensive catchers. He has to maintain that.

Under new manager Pat Murphy, who seems to be the right hire for this group, (again all of four games in) has the team using the stolen base as a key weapon. I think I even saw a sacrifice bunt attempt in the Mets series. If the Brewers can score without homering, that would be big, because, it is baseball in the 2020s, they will homer for a good chunk of their runs.

Contention in August and beyond, however, will depend on starting pitching, whether the Brewers like it or not. As the roster is currently constructed, I’m not sure they have enough. On one hand, losing Woodruff to a season-long injury was very bad. On the other hand, he’s probably not still in a Brewers’ uniform if he’s not hurt. Whatever the hand, he won’t pitch this year.

With Corbin Burnes now a Baltimore Oriole, Peralta is the ace. He’s capable. Who doesn’t love Freddy? For a couple of years now, the Brewers haven’t seemed to believe in having starters pitch more than five or six innings. I still disagree with that theory. But the rest of the starters might be hard-pressed to get past four or five innings as currently constructed. DL Hall and Jakob Junis have more bullpen experience than starting experience. Joe Ross does have a starting pedigree. Collin Rea is a great fourth starter, not your prototypical number-two. The Brewers will need another strong season from the crafty Miley and you gotta think Aaron Ashby, still recovering from major surgery last year, will have to be a key contributor in the second half.

The previous manager got a lot of mileage out of his bullpen use. But I also felt he wore his bullpens down. Standouts like Joel Payamps, Elvis Peguero and Hoby Milner clearly weren’t as effective last year late. Now you have flame thrower Abner Uribe, who has electric stuff, going through his first full MLB season. When does he hit the wall?

How Murphy and his coaching staff work with the pitchers will be a deciding factor in how far the Crew goes.

So what does this all add up to? It won’t be 162-0. It might not even be a winning record. The NL Central is toughening up after some lackluster years. Cincinnati has exciting young talent. The undefeated Pirates aren’t a pushover and it’s hard to imagine St. Louis staying down long.

With luck, I could see upper 80s to maybe 90 for wins and that might be enough to make the division race interesting if the NL Central teams all beat each other up. The run prevention concept will work to a point. But the Brewers also are going to have to hit and score to relieve the tension on the pitching staff, not that I’m saying anything new there.

Matt Frey is the Sports Editor at The Star News.

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