Can one build a successful NCAA bracket with little 2020-21 hoops scouting?

After COVID ruined the fun for everyone last March, it sure was good to be filling out an NCAA tournament bracket again this week.

Well it was fun for about eight picks anyway. After that, my bracket is nothing more than slightly educated to completely uneducated guesses. That’s what happens when you only watch one team throughout the season and even that team’s play didn’t get you excited enough to watch or DVR every game it played.

Simply put, I’ve never felt this unprepared in my quest to win all of those fabulous prizes entities like ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, the NCAA and, of course, The Star News office pool have to offer.

Then again I’ve seen people who knew far less than I do make runs at winning their bracket contests, and I’ve seen people who knew far more crash and burn in the tournament’s first two days. So there’s always a chance!

Since it’s been two years, I started this year’s challenge by watching a couple of videos on the NCAA website that offer advice on filling out your brackets. The first one was a breakdown of what its last five contest winners had in common in their bracket strategies. Big surprise! The key was to get the Final Four teams and Final Four results right. Who would’ve guessed?

Matt’s

Bleacher Shots

After absorbing that earth-shattering advice, it was time to develop this year’s strategy. That started by picking all the one and two seeds to win their firstround games and then looking for the always-popular 12-seed over five-seed upset or two. According to ESPN, five seeds historically have won 64.3% of meetings with 12 seeds, but 2019 marked the third time in the past seven tourneys that 12s won three of the four matchups.

Picking three 12 over five upsets seemed a little much. I just started with one. Then maybe I could debate a second.

I’d heard some talk about how good Winthrop is, but come on, can that team really beat Villanova? Oregon State vs. Tennessee? When was the last time Oregon State won anything? Had to stick with five-seed Tennessee there. The most popular 12-seed pick is Georgetown after the Hoyas stormed to the Big East tournament title and earned an NCAA bid with a modest 13-12 record. And who doesn’t like their coach, Patrick Ewing? The Hoyas are up against Colorado, who is 22-8 and went 14-6 in the Pac-12, a league that doesn’t get much national credibility anymore. This should’ve been the 12-seed to pick. But for some reason, Georgetown’s résumé just looked less impressive than Colorado’s. I went

CHALK on page 29 with the Buffs.

So that left UC-Santa Barbara/Creighton. Creighton is the team Georgetown crushed in the Big East championship. UCSB has a cool mascot, so that’s my 12seed upset. The Gauchos over the Blue Jays.

Next, it was time to stick with what I know, the Big Ten Conference, which put nine teams into the field of 68 and is supposed to be the unquestioned top conference in the country this season.

Normally I pick Wisconsin to win at least one game and it’s rare that I don’t pick the Badgers to at least get to the Sweet 16. Maybe getting away from Big Ten competition will help the 17-12 Badgers, but their draw as a nine-seed in the South Region is brutal. If eight-seed North Carolina is as good at offensive rebounding as the stats say the Tar Heels are, UW is in trouble. At least that’s my initial take after seeing Iowa and Penn State get too many key offensive rebounds in the second halves of the Big Ten tournament games. Plus UNC coach Roy Williams is 29-0 in his career firstround games, although streaks like that are made to be broken.

Illinois and Michigan are one seeds. Finally got a chance to watch Illinois play this past weekend, and that was all I needed to be convinced it’s a good team that should win the Midwest Region. I cared little about the rest of that region and filled it in quickly by going with chalk.

I saw Michigan play Wisconsin twice. They’re very good too but will be missing a key player in Isaiah Livers for at least the early part of the tournament. I hear they’re the one-seed experts think is least likely to get to the Final Four. That had me pausing on filling the East bracket and moving on to the West where Iowa is a two-seed. Again, saw the Hawkeyes play Wisconsin twice in a fiveday period. Pretty impressive team. But dang, they run into Oregon in the second round and that is the one Pac-12 program I currently respect. Could the Ducks be my bracket buster? Pause on that region.

I moved back to the South, which includes two-seed Ohio State and fourseed Purdue. I don’t know much about the Buckeyes, but their résumé seemed solid and I pushed them to an Elite Eight matchup with one-seed Baylor. I saw Purdue play once this season and 7-4 freshman Zach Edey just destroyed the Badgers in a close Boilermakers win. If the Big Ten is as good as people say, Purdue should beat banged-up Villanova, but Baylor sounds too good in the Sweet 16. I haven’t seen the Bears play so I took people’s word for it.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, I had a bad feeling. I eliminated Rutgers and Maryland along with Wisconsin in the first round. I gave 11-seed Michigan State some love because I always do at tourney time. I picked the Spartans to beat UCLA in the First Four and upset BYU in the first round. But that’s all they got.

Back to Iowa. I was going to pick Gonzaga to win the region anyway, so I decided I could just flip a coin for who faces the Zags in the Elite Eight, whether it was Iowa, Oregon or Kansas.

Then it was back to the Michigan debate. I pushed the Wolverines to the Sweet 16 against four-seed Florida State, a team that I’ve heard is pretty good but never watched. Then ESPN told me one seeds are 8-0 against four seeds in the past five NCAA tournaments. Sold! Now I had the Wolverines facing Texas in the Elite Eight. I hate picking all four one seeds for the Final Four. I don’t think I’ve ever done it. For that reason I penciled in Texas for a moment. Then I changed it. Texas is just one of those athletic programs that is always close but never good enough. Michigan basketball tends to win when it counts. They’re rivals, I don’t like ‘em, but I went with the Wolverines.

All the pundits on Selection Sunday said top-ranked and undefeated Gonzaga is really, really good. I haven’t seen Gonzaga play, but if everyone says they’re that good, they’ll beat Michigan in one semifinal. The Illinois/Baylor semifinal is a tough call. They did play early in the year with Baylor winning by 13. All the logic said pick Baylor. But you have to take a risk somewhere. I put Illinois in the final, losing to Gonzaga.

If Gonzaga loses sometime before the Final Four, it sounds like there are going to be millions of busted brackets.

Matt Frey is the Sports Editor at The Star News.

Matt Frey