‘Run prevention’ theory has worked so far as late-season sprint approaches

“Run prevention” was the catch phrase in Milwaukee when the Major League Baseball season opened on April 1 and, through four and a half months, the strategy has been working for the Brewers, who own the third-best record in the National League at 68-46 and lead the Central Division by seven games over the Cincinnati Reds with 48 games to play.

Coming off a disastrous offensive output in the shortened 2020 season, general manager David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell made it well-known the team’s plan in 2021 was to pitch well, defend well and hope the offense would improve enough to make the “run prevention” stand.

That’s pretty much what’s happened through the first 114 games. Milwaukee ranks second in the Majors in team earned run average at 3.33, is tied with the pitching staffs from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta and San Francisco with 12 shutouts and the staff leads all of baseball with 1,140 strikeouts. Teams are hitting just .214 against Milwaukee pitching. Only the Dodgers (.213) have allowed a lower opponents’ batting average.

All-star starting pitchers Freddy Peralta (2.26), Brandon Woodruff (2.23) and Corbin Burnes (2.39) all rank among MLB’s top six in ERA. They’re all in the top 10 in strikeouts. Josh Hader is 22 of 23 in save opportunities with 67 strikeouts and just 14 walks in 39.1 innings pitched. The National League’s 2020 Rookie of the Year Devin Williams has rediscovered his nasty change-up after a rough start. The Brewers were the first National League team ever to strike out 1,000 opposing batters in their first 100 games. Burnes struck out a Major League record 58 batters before walking one to start the season.

The Brewers aren’t great statistically when it comes to straight fielding percentage and errors made. They rank 26th

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in the MLB at 0.63 errors per game and second to last with just 0.61 double plays turned per game. That, though, is offset some by all of the strikeouts. ESPN has the Brewers ranked 22nd with a pedestrian .983 team fielding percentage.

But, according to the fieldingbible. com, Milwaukee is tied with Colorado for third in all of baseball in the statistic of defensive runs saved with 47, including nine alone from centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Second baseman Kolten Wong has six and he’s been in and out of the lineup due to injuries. Fourteen more runs have been saved, according to the website, by infield shifts applied at the right time against the right hitters.

The bottom line is only the Los Angeles Dodgers have allowed fewer earned runs than the Brewers. Opponents can’t win if they don’t score.

That is, unless you don’t score either.

There’s the rub that continues to make this fan nervous about the Brewers’ chances to make a deep post-season run.

For all of the success their three aces have had, Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta have 22 wins combined. Peralta is a solid 9-3, but for Woodruff to be just 7-6 and Burnes just 6-4 with how they’ve pitched is criminal. Even the great ones need a little help.

The help this year is going to reliever Brent Suter, who has 11 wins, and Adrian Hauser, who is 7-5 and lost what should have been a win last week when he took a no-hitter into the seventh in a game the Brewers eventually lost to Pittsburgh.

Fortunately, Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez have had bounce-back seasons. Who knows where the Brewers would be without, arguably, the mid-season pick-up of the year in Major League Baseball, shortstop Willy Adames. He has hit at a .298 clip, smacked 16 homers and 20 doubles and driven in 46 runs in just 69 games since being acquired in a May 22 trade with Tampa Bay.

Overall, the team somehow ranks 14th in the MLB in runs scored (516) while ranking just 28th in batting average (.228, up from last year’s .223 but barely), 22nd in slugging percentage (.389) and 20th in on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) at .704. The Brewers are 17th in on-base percentage at .314 thanks to 422 walks, which does rank sixth in the Majors.

Milwaukee’s 4.5 runs per game are better than its 4.1 mark of last year, but a bigger upward tick down the stretch would be helpful. That has to start with Christian Yelich, who’s ridiculous downward spiral at the plate is now about 14 months long. Ever since banging that foul ball off his knee in Miami to end his 2019 season early, he just has not found anything resembling his MVP form. The .226 batting average with six homers and 29 runs batted in and just a .616 OPS is not going to cut it from the $188 million man, who has dealt with back issues and now a bout of COVID this season. Neither is his 28% strikeout rate. Yelich has to start delivering some big hits if this team is going to be a serious contender.

Not that Yelich is alone. He’s just the one with the ability and pedigree to be the guy that pushes the team over the top when it matters in the fall.

All in all, Brewers fans have been on a heck of a ride so far this year. Give Stearns and Counsell credit for piecing together a contender through some tough circumstances at times, the latest being COVID spreading through the bullpen.

Who would’ve thought Rowdy Tellez would become a Milwaukee rock star? Who would’ve thought the Brewers would find a shortstop who smiled even more than Orlando Arcia did and would be mentioned in the MVP conversation? Who would’ve thought the cousin of one of Wisconsin’s main sports enemies, Kirk Cousins, would be a key reliever for a stretch? Who would’ve thought Travis Shaw would return and be a viable piece in the lineup, despite his .191 batting average? His return off the injured list any day now could be a boost down the stretch because, despite that lousy average, he had a knack to drive in runs in the first half of the season. And, he makes the run prevention better with his play at third base.

Stearns and Counsell will have tough decisions to make when Shaw comes back. Will Daniel Vogelbach even have a spot when he returns from the injured list? What does Tellez’s role become? I could see newly-acquired Eduardo Escobar taking over third base and Shaw moving to first in September.

Pitching workload could be a concern late as all of the aforementioned starters are reaching career highs for innings pitched.

The other thing to watch down the stretch is the schedule. The key to holding on and winning the Central –– and there’s a chance winning the division will be the only way into the post-season –– is going to be beating up the teams that have little to play for anymore and then getting the games you can against the contenders, especially in series at San Francisco to end August and Los Angeles to end the season.

The rest of August will be big. The Brewers have to feast on the Cubs, Pirates, Nationals and Twins. They have to take two of the three final games of the year with the Reds Aug. 24-26. There are 13 games left with St. Louis, which always makes Brewers fans anxious when the Cardinals stand in the way of postseason glory.

The Reds have the easier schedule down the stretch with a fair share of games against the Cubs and Pirates, two series with the Marlins and a four-game set with Washington late. They do face the Dodgers and White Sox yet.

Closing this thing out won’t be easy, but pennant races are supposed to stressful yet fun. It beats rooting for the Cubs, Orioles or Pirates right now.

Matt Frey is the Sports Editor at The Star News.